-- Doormile — prediction readiness queries (Phase 0 + rung 1.0)
-- docs/prediction-plan.md §2 and §3
--
-- ALL READ-ONLY. No DDL, no writes. Safe to run against production.
-- Run top to bottom; each block prints one answer the plan needs.
--
-- Two of these depend on the consignment_booking view that migrate.go now
-- creates (hazard H4 — consignments has no bookingid column). If the view does
-- not exist yet, the blocks marked [needs view] will error; everything else
-- still answers.

\echo '=== Q1. Is routing even running? (gates rung 1.1) ==='
-- with_routed_eta = 0 means ROUTE_OPTIMIZER_URL is unset in the cluster and
-- there is nothing to calibrate yet. See Phase 7 Track A1.
SELECT count(*)                                       AS assignments,
       count(*) FILTER (WHERE etaminutes > 0)         AS with_routed_eta,
       count(*) FILTER (WHERE step > 0)               AS sequenced,
       min(sequencedat)                               AS first_sequenced,
       max(sequencedat)                               AS last_sequenced
FROM bookingassignments;

\echo '=== Q2. How much delivery history exists? (gates everything) ==='
SELECT count(*)                            AS delivered_events,
       min(createdat)::date                AS first_day,
       max(createdat)::date                AS last_day,
       count(DISTINCT createdat::date)     AS distinct_days
FROM consignmenthistory
WHERE eventstatus = 'Delivered';

\echo '=== Q3. H2 — delivered consignments with no Delivered event (silent label loss) ==='
-- Non-zero means the training label is missing for those rows. Fix the write
-- path before fitting anything.
SELECT count(*) AS delivered_without_event
FROM consignments c
LEFT JOIN consignmenthistory h
       ON h.consignmentid = c.consignmentid AND h.eventstatus = 'Delivered'
WHERE c.status = 'Delivered' AND h.consignmentid IS NULL;

\echo '=== Q4. H4 — can every consignment be resolved to a booking? [needs view] ==='
SELECT count(*)                                      AS consignments,
       count(*) FILTER (WHERE bookingid IS NULL)     AS unresolvable
FROM consignment_booking;

\echo '=== Q5. Per-pincode series length (gates demand grain) ==='
-- Demand SARIMA/Prophet needs ~90 days PER SERIES, not in total.
-- If days_with_data is small everywhere, aggregate to city level.
SELECT c.deliverypincode,
       count(DISTINCT h.createdat::date) AS days_with_data,
       count(*)                          AS deliveries
FROM consignmenthistory h
JOIN consignments c ON c.consignmentid = h.consignmentid
WHERE h.eventstatus = 'Delivered'
GROUP BY 1
ORDER BY 3 DESC
LIMIT 30;

\echo '=== Q6. Rung 1.0 — how wrong are the promise constants? [needs view] ==='
-- Actual duration uses consignmenthistory.createdat - consignments.createdat.
-- Both come from CURRENT_TIMESTAMP defaults, so they are consistent with each
-- other and this comparison is unaffected by H1.
--
-- Deliberately NOT comparing against estimateddeliveryat: that column is
-- written with time.Now() at adminController.go:2738 but CURRENT_TIMESTAMP
-- elsewhere, so its tagging is not uniform. Promise hours are taken from the
-- service type instead, which is unambiguous.
SELECT so.servicetype,
       count(*)                                                          AS n,
       round(avg(EXTRACT(EPOCH FROM (h.createdat - c.createdat))/3600)::numeric, 2) AS actual_hours_avg,
       round(percentile_cont(0.5) WITHIN GROUP (
             ORDER BY EXTRACT(EPOCH FROM (h.createdat - c.createdat))/3600)::numeric, 2) AS actual_hours_p50,
       round(percentile_cont(0.8) WITHIN GROUP (
             ORDER BY EXTRACT(EPOCH FROM (h.createdat - c.createdat))/3600)::numeric, 2) AS actual_hours_p80,
       round(percentile_cont(0.95) WITHIN GROUP (
             ORDER BY EXTRACT(EPOCH FROM (h.createdat - c.createdat))/3600)::numeric, 2) AS actual_hours_p95
FROM consignments c
JOIN consignmenthistory h   ON h.consignmentid = c.consignmentid AND h.eventstatus = 'Delivered'
JOIN consignment_booking cb ON cb.consignmentid = c.consignmentid
LEFT JOIN bookingserviceoptions so ON so.bookingid = cb.bookingid
GROUP BY 1
ORDER BY 2 DESC;

\echo '=== Q7. Rung 1.0 — SLA breach rate against the promise actually stored ==='
SELECT count(*)                                           AS delivered,
       count(*) FILTER (WHERE c.sladueat IS NOT NULL)      AS with_sla,
       count(*) FILTER (WHERE h.createdat > c.sladueat)    AS breached
FROM consignments c
JOIN consignmenthistory h ON h.consignmentid = c.consignmentid AND h.eventstatus = 'Delivered';

\echo '=== Q8. H3 — do delivery durations look fabricated? ==='
-- Real durations spread. Heavy clustering on round values, or a near-constant
-- offset from createdat, means the timestamps are generated rather than
-- observed. A model fitted on these predicts confidently and wrongly.
SELECT round((EXTRACT(EPOCH FROM (h.createdat - c.createdat))/3600)::numeric, 0) AS duration_hours,
       count(*) AS n
FROM consignments c
JOIN consignmenthistory h ON h.consignmentid = c.consignmentid AND h.eventstatus = 'Delivered'
GROUP BY 1
ORDER BY 2 DESC
LIMIT 20;

\echo '=== Q9. Demand series at city grain (the safe starting grain) ==='
SELECT left(pickuppincode, 3)      AS zone,
       count(DISTINCT createdat::date) AS days_with_data,
       count(*)                     AS bookings,
       min(createdat)::date         AS first_day,
       max(createdat)::date         AS last_day
FROM pickupbookings
WHERE status <> 'Cancelled'
GROUP BY 1
ORDER BY 3 DESC;

\echo '=== Q10. Would the calibration have any cells to fill? [needs view] ==='
-- Mirrors the GROUP BY that internal/prediction/calibration.go uses. Cells
-- below the sample floor are discarded, so this says whether rung 1.1 can
-- calibrate at all or must stay on its fallback.
-- Mirrors internal/prediction/calibration.go exactly, including the DISTINCT ON
-- that picks ONE assignment per booking. A booking passes through several
-- bookingassignments rows (Assigned, Rejected, Reassigned), so a plain join
-- multiplies each delivery by its assignment history and overstates samples.
WITH assigned AS (
    SELECT DISTINCT ON (ba.bookingid) ba.bookingid, ba.etaminutes
    FROM bookingassignments ba
    WHERE ba.etaminutes > 0
    ORDER BY ba.bookingid, ba.sequencedat DESC NULLS LAST, ba.bookingassignmentid DESC
)
SELECT left(c.deliverypincode, 3)                AS zone,
       (EXTRACT(HOUR FROM c.createdat)::int / 3) AS hour_bucket,
       EXTRACT(ISODOW FROM c.createdat)::int     AS weekday,
       count(*)                                  AS samples
FROM consignments c
JOIN consignmenthistory h   ON h.consignmentid = c.consignmentid AND h.eventstatus = 'Delivered'
JOIN consignment_booking cb ON cb.consignmentid = c.consignmentid
JOIN assigned a             ON a.bookingid = cb.bookingid
GROUP BY 1, 2, 3
HAVING count(*) >= 20
ORDER BY 4 DESC
LIMIT 25;